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November 01, 2004

Election prediction

CNN.com has a terrific interactive feature going until midnight tonight -- it's their Presidential Showdown Game, where you get to choose what states you think will break for which candidate.

Best of all, the winner takes home a 30" LCD TV.

One small complaint: DC (which has 3 electoral votes) isn't represented on their map.

Here's my guess, with Election Day officially kicking off in 9 hours:

Bush (26 states):

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

Kerry (24 states & DC):

California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

My math suggests that breaks down as Bush 218, Kerry 320. It's interesting, because I've been guessing Kerry might break 300 or 305, but when I look at the state polls, and the exceptional turnout early voting locations have seen, I could see things going this well for Kerry. Looking at it state by state, with the latest polls, this looks like a real possibility.

I take great comfort in the fact that Bush was up 3-5 points in all the pre-election polls in 2000, and, of course, lost the popular vote. In my mind (maybe ONLY in my mind), that suggests at least a 3 point swing between the final polls and the actual results.

States I have for Kerry that Bush might take away: Colorado, Florida (but not if all the votes are counted). Recent polling data on Hispanic Americans leads me to believe Kerry will unexpectedly take New Mexico. Most recent polls have Bush up in Ohio, but by 1-2 percent, which won't hold up tomorrow. If Bush were to take both Colorado and Florida, he moves up to 254, and Kerry drops to 284.

States I have for Bush that Kerry could take away: Virginia. A Kerry victory here could put him at 333, Bush 205.

November 1, 2004 in Current Affairs | Permalink


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