November 03, 2004
So much for prognostication....
Guess I'll keep my day job.
Things are looking dark in the Electoral College, with the networks putting Bush at 246. But his remaining easy pickups are in Alaska (3 EVs) and potentially New Mexico (up by 15,000), which could only get him to 254. Kerry is holding razor-thin leads in New Hampshire, the entire upper midwest, Hawaii, and Nevada (5,000 or so votes), which would get him to only 263. Several of Kerry's states could flip, but that rarely seems to happen to Democrats, since heavily Democratic precincts tend to be bigger and take longer to count.
That means it's all down to Ohio. Hamilton County (Cincinnati) has reportedly come in slow and Republican, while Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is running late and heavily Democratic. Statewide, Kerry needs to make up 200,000 votes, and the county-by-county rundown provides some basis for optimism, as most of the heavily Republican counties have 100 percent reported, while the late arrivers are mostly Democratic or split. Update: looking worse and worse; there are some big counties with strong Republican majorities with 30-50 percent of their precincts still out, while most of the Democrat counties are closing out their votes.
On the downside, I may have the chance to be embarrassed over my birth state and my adopted home state all because of one election.
Update: Fox News has called Ohio for Bush, although the margin in the state continues to fall.
Worse yet update: Carville has essentially conceded Ohio on CNN.
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